Where are we in this Bitcoin cycle?
Bitcoin's price has historically followed a four-year rhythm anchored to the halving. The chart below overlays the current cycle on the previous three, day-for-day from the halving — so you can see whether this run is hot, cold, or in step with history.
Halving overlay — this cycle vs the previous three
Each line below starts at 1× on the halving day and tracks the multiple from there. Y-axis is logarithmic — equal vertical distances mean equal % gains. The current cycle is highlighted in orange.
Source: blockchain.info daily market price (USD). Days are zero-indexed from each halving. Earlier cycles' starting price: —.
At the same day in past cycles
Pi cycle top indicator
When the 111-day SMA crosses above 2× the 350-day SMA, it has historically marked the top of the cycle within a few days — true for 2013, 2017 and 2021. A wide negative gap means we're nowhere near a top. A narrow or positive gap is a flashing light.
Gap between the moving averages is shown below the chart. Negative = 111d SMA below 2× 350d SMA (no top signal).
200-week moving average
Across Bitcoin's history, prices have rarely closed below their 200-week (1400-day) moving average. When they have, it has tended to coincide with cycle bottoms. The current ratio tells you how hot or cold price is relative to its longest meaningful trend.
Below 1.0× the 200-week SMA is historically the rarest part of the cycle and the best risk/reward zone. Mayer Multiple (price ÷ 200-day SMA): —.